I noticed something about the XP values of monsters based on templates today. That was bothering me a bit - I was trying to figure out the relative power (and thus XP value) of a Lich. The rules are clear enough (though the devil's work to find, sometimes): an NPC counts the same as a Standard Monster. A Template - lich, vampire, mummy, etc. - turns the Standard Monster into an Elite Monster. But looking at the numbers - a 15th level magic user turned Lich, therefor, would be worth 2800XP. That seemed awfully low. So I decided to test it - run a lich up against a party (Theresa, Fighting Eagle, a bunch of NPCs, a bit lower than the real party would be), just a straight fight, nothing fancy. The results? a very close thing, but the party beat it - a very close thing: 2 of 6 down, 2 more in single digits, 5 or 6 using healing surges and potions - though the cleric still had cure spells, so they were probably going to live anyway... (Though I missed a couple of the lich's powers - this could have been a monster win....)
Those aren't results you would expect from a 2800 XP monster. The Kuo-tao we fought with the lower party were worth 3100XP - parties are different than individuals, but still, 2800 should be in the range of that lower party - the usual high level party can take out those monsters (a fire giant is 2000, for example) without working up much of a sweat. (Well, fighting fire giants, I imagine they would perspire a bit.) This test party was lower, but still comparable - why was this so hard? and if it is this hard - what kind of XP should it be worth?
I found the answer: I looked up the DMG's rules for generating NPCs. They are quick and dirty rules - "only give them the thins you'll need to run them in an encounter or an adventure." In practice it means - don't list every feat and stat and skill and magic item they have back in the vault - reasonable advice. But it also means - a noticeably limited set of powers. This is what an NPC gets:
1 at will
1 encounter below 11, a second if over 11th level.
1 daily, 2 if over 21st level
1 utility, 2 if over 11.
And that explains the XP value. This might not make much difference for mid-level NPCs - but it's rather striking how much that costs you for a 16th level magic user. Who gets:
3 at wills
4 encounters
3 dailies
4 (I think) utilities
Playing that version of the Lich creates a much more dangerous foe. The results above - are about what you would expect from a comparable solo monster - an adult red dragon (15th level solo monster - 6000XP.) I verified it, sort of - played the Lich from the monster manual, against the same party - they took it out without much trouble. Took a lot of damage, used up some daily and encounter powers - but none of them were bloodied, let alone zeroed, none of them used any healing (other than a Temporary HP buff at the beginning) - the issue was never in doubt. That is what I would expect - 14th level elite for the default, 16th level elite for the template - without all those spells, it would be a far tamer thing.
Now - the question might be - should you play the Lich from the book, or should you play it as a full blown Character, with all those powers, plus the Lich template? I would assume, that's not a hard question to answer. It would seem to me, if you are going to fight a lich, or a death knight, or something like that, you are going to want an opponent that offers a bit more resistance than 5 kuo-tao or a fire giant with a hell hound. Those are fun things to fight, but they are not a Lich. Fortunately - from what I see - you can work out the XP fairly easily - for something like that, I would just treat it as a Solo Monster that easily enough - the numbers, and the strength, seem to work out about right.
And finally - I will vent a bit. I seem to find a lot to complain about in 4th Edition - and so much of it is this kind of thing. The DMG offers guidance in how to create a quick and easy NPC - fair enough, and useful, and most of the time you probably do want to be able to knock an NPC out in 10 minutes - and you can do it with those rules. But sometimes, you will want an NPC who is just as full a challenge as a PC. And a Lich? why would you want anything else? If you are trying to beard the monster in its den especially - you expect the thing to be waiting for you (basically) - certainly as a DM, I would think, you would plan to have the thing lying in wait. Now - the rules make it simple enough to do this: the lich template works quite well on top of a full character - but the XP guidelines are nowhere near right for something like that. And I have not found anything that indicates how much XP a full PC would be worth... so I have to make an executive decision, as it were. But it annoys me how often I find something in DD4 that is like this - weakened - reduced - simplified. "You're doing too much work" says the DMG about NPCs, starting them out or fully equipping them - fine advice for generating a couple thieves in a barroom somewhere, but for the leader of a rival party? head of a pirate band? as lich? Have these guys ever played D&D? have they ever made a dungeon? Maybe I am unique (though if I am, so is everyone I have ever played the game with), but especially with the Big Bad Monsters, building them out, the whole mess - stats and powers and magic items and treasure and where they got it and how they plan to use it, is a major part of the appeal. Certainly, in the past, fighting liches, it was clear enough that the DM had built the thing out completely - and why would't you? you want to make that kind of adventure an event, at some level - and that needs a worthy monster.
Okay. But I'll say it again - it is depressing to think of the things the current version has taken away. This probably comes up more with PCs - the condition of hybrids, say... But I find it comes up as often with monsters and combat (going either way) as with PCs. Like this - the way the NPCs the DMG would generate are stripped down so much. The things dragons (say) can't do - from the old Aura (ancients still have it, but they're the only ones) to the spells they use to have. Obviously the lack of high stakes magic items, like a vorpal blade. And just simple things, like the removal of the old "threatening reach" - not being able to take an opportunity attack against something a square away (but in reach). Man. They are changes I don't really understand - all they do is flatten the game. Flat is not really what I want.
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Lich Hunt
The idea here is to have a lich take over a school of magic - this you get battles against novice magic users, plus the lich and his henchmen. If this is something like a university, you could also have bands of clerics or monks associated with the rest.
Being undead, the Lich would also be protected by swarms of undead.
Plan - would be for multiple people to work up pieces of the adventure. Some of the pieces you need are:
- encounters with the magicians
- the battle with the Big Bad Lich himself
- possibly a battle with a gang of clerics or similar types
- lots of undead
- encounters outside, on the approach
- random encounters with monsters who use the opportunities created by the lich and his works.
Doing this as a team effort has a lot of advantages - from the obvious division of labor to the way it lets parts of the dungeon contain surprises.
We need to work out a backstory and setup. We need to work out a way into the adventure.
Being undead, the Lich would also be protected by swarms of undead.
Plan - would be for multiple people to work up pieces of the adventure. Some of the pieces you need are:
- encounters with the magicians
- the battle with the Big Bad Lich himself
- possibly a battle with a gang of clerics or similar types
- lots of undead
- encounters outside, on the approach
- random encounters with monsters who use the opportunities created by the lich and his works.
Doing this as a team effort has a lot of advantages - from the obvious division of labor to the way it lets parts of the dungeon contain surprises.
We need to work out a backstory and setup. We need to work out a way into the adventure.
Lich Lead
A mysterious figure at the inn has offered you a chance to investigate his former monastery, which has become shrouded in rumor and fear. What he hasn't mentioned is that he already visited the monastery, found out about the vampires, and stolen a relic that he needs to take to the Magic Academy to break the curse of the vampires and free the monastery. He wants your help to roust the evil and deliver the talisman (which he doesn't mention). What he doesn't know is that the Lich devoured the monastery and moved on to the Academy, leaving his phylactery behind with a Vampire Lord to guard it. He does know they noticed him and have sent villains to retrieve it - and him.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Baseball 2013
Spring has been a long time coming this year, but there is one unmistakable sign - baseball! Somehow last year I did not manage to get a post up at the beginning of the year - I blame Bobby Valentine; at least it saved me the embarrassment of picking the sox for the post-season. Anyway - this year -
AL East:
Toronto - the truth is, I don't think this division can be picked in the least. Toronto seems to be the consensus, having imported a host of top class players - but note that they imported them from the Marlins and Mets - those teams did not win with Reyes and Johnson and Dickey and company, why are the Jays so much better? Now - in fact, I suspect the Jays will have a heck of a team - but... it's a little too easy to pick them. I have Jose Batista in my fantasy league, though, so you can be assured I'll be waving the Canadian flag any time I can.
Boston - Ah, well... I don't know what criteria I have used to pick the order of these teams - but I might as well go with the rooting interest. One game in the book, they sure look capable of winning some games - though I think the real question with this team is going to be the rotation. If Lester and Buckholtz bounce back (as they can - they are young...), if Lackey and Dempster can be effective and stay on the field (I'm more optimistic about Lackey's effectiveness and Dempster's durability than the opposites), if Dubront can be a bit more consistent - there's a lot to like. They won't be hammering the ball, but they ought to be driving line drives and doubles all over the place; they have speed; they have very good defense; they have what looks like a deep and effective bullpen. It's fragile - that rotation, especially, can go to hell in a hurry - but if they hold up, this is a team that can do a lot more damage than anyone outside of Boston thinks...
Baltimore - with all the angst about the Sox and Yankees it is easy to forget the Orioles, who won, a bit earlier than they were supposed to. I don't know if they can sustain it - probably not, a lot of luck went into last year's run - but they got some decent pitching, and at least some of it could get better... No, I don't really believe it... I do think they will continue to hit pretty well - something better from Wieters seems a safe bet, I think Davis and Jones will continue to produce - they have enough core to hang around, but getting into the post-seasomn is going to be a struggle.
Tampa Bay - let's see how far pitching can take a team. Though if Myers is ready or Jennings steps it up, they could be all right. And the pitching can take them quite a ways. But without things working out, they are thin...
New York - this is a rooting interest. But looking at the team they're running out there - holy crap! They are old; they are all hurt - Texeira and A Rod and Jeter, Granderson too. They do have some pretty decent pitchers, and Cano, and financial resources... but the team on the field today is sub-Astros quality - and not going to get better for a while. I don't think they are going to be able to overcome the missing players this year. Maybe enough of them will come back to not embarrass themselves - but I suspect the worst for the Yanks. Heh heh heh.
Central:
Detroit - I think they might be the safest pick in baseball - 90 odd wins, and the division. They have a great top of a rotation; they have a great middle of the lineup; they have - well, some talent around that. And they have holes. But they are in a weak division and they are going to get to 90 wins - the post-season seems a safe bet here.
Chicago - They are still around. They never quite seem to make up their minds if they are going to contend. I think they got a bit more last year than they have a reason to expect this year, which means they shouldn't trouble the Cats, but will probably finish second easy enough.
KC - All their good young hitters regressed last year - so - they'll probably come back this year. I don't know if they have enough pitching - though they did load up on Tampa Bay pitchers. Second place is in reach, if things break for them.
Cleveland - probably not for the Indians, though who knows - Tito ought to steady them, they have some interesting players, and brought in a bunch of interesting failures (the likes of Drew Stubbs...) They could be respectable. Or hopeless. Probably a bit better than hopeless. 72 wins, that sort of thing.
Minnesota - there's talent hanging around this roster too, but not enough to trouble anyone. I took three hitters and a closer on my fantasy team, so there is that. Here's hoping for that big Justin Morneau comeback!
West:
Angels - on paper they are a beast, though perhaps thin in the rotation. In fact - I am not sold on them, though they should get past 90 wins easily enough. They might be this year's version of the Yankees - hammer their way to the post-season, then get bumped by the Tigers or Rays or something...
Rangers - they lost a lot of talent this year, but I think they have enough of a team to hang around (though they have to do better than yesterday.) The pitching is still decent, starters and bullpen, they have a strong defense, they have hitters - they don't have the anchor of someone like Hamilton, but they are pretty good. They should hang around the wild card race.
A's - teams that rise too fast do tend to settle a bit, especially young pitchers; but they have real talent - they are certainly capable of hanging around. I hope they do - at least, I hope they stay in contention over the next couple years - I hate seeing good young teams that fall apart. They could be TAmpa west...
Seattle - they don't look nearly as bad as they have in recent years... that's not saying a lot.
Houston - poor bastards.
NL East:
Washington - this might be the best team in baseball. ALl that pitching, starters and relievers; a killer infield; Bryce Harper. I expect they will stay a force for a while. They seem determined to put a team on the field. A good thing.
Atlanta - they seem to have done a neat job of retooling on the fly, without dropping all that far out of contention. Now, they are putting together another good young team - Hayward and all those Uptons, good young pitchers, good young infielders - they should be in the wild card hunt, and in position to take the division if things go wrong in the capitol.
Philly - fading, but still dangerous with all those pitchers - and the ever present possibility that the old hitters will rise up for one last gasp. Everything went wrong last year - if things were to go right this year, they could slither into the post-season and cause trouble. Their problem is that they are in a tough division (well, behind 2 tough teams) - it will be hard to get close enough...
Florida - is Giancarlo Stanton the loneliest man in America? is he checking out houses in Boston and New York as we speak? Will some surprise team pull the trigger for him? (Washington? Detroit? San Francisco?) What odds do you give that he will last the year in Miami?
New York - poor bastards.
Central:
Cincinnati - this is another division that is very difficult to predict. The Reds, though, are another contender for the best team, in the game. Pitching - Cueto, Latos, etc. - Chapman, Marshall, Broxton; Votto and Bruce and Phillips and Choo and - they're really good. Deep and talented with a track record, with promise - a good bet, I think...
SL - they have some old timers who could fade, but plenty of solid talent - I don't hate them anymore, so I can take a cooler look at them. They have front line pitching, pitching depth; they do rely on some ancient outfielders and some uninspiring, but useful, ball players - but still seem quite capable of continuing to haunt the post-season...
Pittsburgh - this is being perverse, there are probably no reasons to pick them ahead of Milwaukee, but I am going to do it anyway. I was thinking Andrew McCutcheon might be the loneliest man in America, but in fact, they have some decent players around him. Maybe. Sometimes.
Milwaukee - They are probably better than Pittsburgh - though they weren't all that great with Greinke and Hart and one is gone and one hurt... We will see.
Chicago - hopeless. Some nice players getting developed, but still...
West:
SF - might as well. Part of what gives you pause is that they did what they did without getting the best from a bunch of players - if Pence and Sandoval hit, if Lincecum comes back - this is a team capable of greatness. Though even without that, they should slither into the post-season, and are then more than capable of winning it all, with all that pitching.
LA - on paper, there is a lot to like; in the real world - I don't know. But talent will out, sooner or later - chemistry and the like are not going to win and lose ball games very often. The pitching is impressive - we'll see where it takes them.
Arizona - trading players like Upton for character guys is a good way to finish fourth. Character only really matters when you are finishing fourth and you don't want guys punching each other in the dugout.
Colorado - I believe they are again devoid of pitching. There were a couple years there where Rockies starters were getting drafted in fantasy leagues - not so much anymore. Make what you will of that.
SD - they seem to creep a little closer to not being an embarrassment every year - so who knows. They also seem capable of winning games for no conceivable reason, which is worth something.
So: all right - who will do what? Wild Cards - AL: Boston, Texas. NL: Atlanta - SL. World series? oy - Detroit vs. Washington - though Boston/Washington is the one I want.
Awards?
AL:
MVP - should have been Trout last year - might as well pick him this year.
Cy Young - Verlander, until someone else beats him
Rookie of the Year - wishful thinking, sure, but Jackie Bradley Jr.
NL:
MVP - there's a fair amount of competition here. Braun generally puts up the numbers, though it might be a matter of time before he puts up a 50 game suspension. Votto has one and could get another any time. How good will Bryce Harper be? can Hayward step up a notch? could Stanton's team win enough to make anyone remember he exists? can Kemp stay healthy? Ad Gon recover? Will Posey keep playing like he has? I'll say Votto, this year.
Cy Young - Strasbourg is bound to win it sooner or later.
Rookie - I should have an opinion - there seem to be lots of pitchers around this year (the AL has more offense) - I'm going togo with Shelby Miller, though that might be because I have him in three different fantasy leagues. Sad, I know, but hey, you have to root for something!
AL East:
Toronto - the truth is, I don't think this division can be picked in the least. Toronto seems to be the consensus, having imported a host of top class players - but note that they imported them from the Marlins and Mets - those teams did not win with Reyes and Johnson and Dickey and company, why are the Jays so much better? Now - in fact, I suspect the Jays will have a heck of a team - but... it's a little too easy to pick them. I have Jose Batista in my fantasy league, though, so you can be assured I'll be waving the Canadian flag any time I can.
Boston - Ah, well... I don't know what criteria I have used to pick the order of these teams - but I might as well go with the rooting interest. One game in the book, they sure look capable of winning some games - though I think the real question with this team is going to be the rotation. If Lester and Buckholtz bounce back (as they can - they are young...), if Lackey and Dempster can be effective and stay on the field (I'm more optimistic about Lackey's effectiveness and Dempster's durability than the opposites), if Dubront can be a bit more consistent - there's a lot to like. They won't be hammering the ball, but they ought to be driving line drives and doubles all over the place; they have speed; they have very good defense; they have what looks like a deep and effective bullpen. It's fragile - that rotation, especially, can go to hell in a hurry - but if they hold up, this is a team that can do a lot more damage than anyone outside of Boston thinks...
Baltimore - with all the angst about the Sox and Yankees it is easy to forget the Orioles, who won, a bit earlier than they were supposed to. I don't know if they can sustain it - probably not, a lot of luck went into last year's run - but they got some decent pitching, and at least some of it could get better... No, I don't really believe it... I do think they will continue to hit pretty well - something better from Wieters seems a safe bet, I think Davis and Jones will continue to produce - they have enough core to hang around, but getting into the post-seasomn is going to be a struggle.
Tampa Bay - let's see how far pitching can take a team. Though if Myers is ready or Jennings steps it up, they could be all right. And the pitching can take them quite a ways. But without things working out, they are thin...
New York - this is a rooting interest. But looking at the team they're running out there - holy crap! They are old; they are all hurt - Texeira and A Rod and Jeter, Granderson too. They do have some pretty decent pitchers, and Cano, and financial resources... but the team on the field today is sub-Astros quality - and not going to get better for a while. I don't think they are going to be able to overcome the missing players this year. Maybe enough of them will come back to not embarrass themselves - but I suspect the worst for the Yanks. Heh heh heh.
Central:
Detroit - I think they might be the safest pick in baseball - 90 odd wins, and the division. They have a great top of a rotation; they have a great middle of the lineup; they have - well, some talent around that. And they have holes. But they are in a weak division and they are going to get to 90 wins - the post-season seems a safe bet here.
Chicago - They are still around. They never quite seem to make up their minds if they are going to contend. I think they got a bit more last year than they have a reason to expect this year, which means they shouldn't trouble the Cats, but will probably finish second easy enough.
KC - All their good young hitters regressed last year - so - they'll probably come back this year. I don't know if they have enough pitching - though they did load up on Tampa Bay pitchers. Second place is in reach, if things break for them.
Cleveland - probably not for the Indians, though who knows - Tito ought to steady them, they have some interesting players, and brought in a bunch of interesting failures (the likes of Drew Stubbs...) They could be respectable. Or hopeless. Probably a bit better than hopeless. 72 wins, that sort of thing.
Minnesota - there's talent hanging around this roster too, but not enough to trouble anyone. I took three hitters and a closer on my fantasy team, so there is that. Here's hoping for that big Justin Morneau comeback!
West:
Angels - on paper they are a beast, though perhaps thin in the rotation. In fact - I am not sold on them, though they should get past 90 wins easily enough. They might be this year's version of the Yankees - hammer their way to the post-season, then get bumped by the Tigers or Rays or something...
Rangers - they lost a lot of talent this year, but I think they have enough of a team to hang around (though they have to do better than yesterday.) The pitching is still decent, starters and bullpen, they have a strong defense, they have hitters - they don't have the anchor of someone like Hamilton, but they are pretty good. They should hang around the wild card race.
A's - teams that rise too fast do tend to settle a bit, especially young pitchers; but they have real talent - they are certainly capable of hanging around. I hope they do - at least, I hope they stay in contention over the next couple years - I hate seeing good young teams that fall apart. They could be TAmpa west...
Seattle - they don't look nearly as bad as they have in recent years... that's not saying a lot.
Houston - poor bastards.
NL East:
Washington - this might be the best team in baseball. ALl that pitching, starters and relievers; a killer infield; Bryce Harper. I expect they will stay a force for a while. They seem determined to put a team on the field. A good thing.
Atlanta - they seem to have done a neat job of retooling on the fly, without dropping all that far out of contention. Now, they are putting together another good young team - Hayward and all those Uptons, good young pitchers, good young infielders - they should be in the wild card hunt, and in position to take the division if things go wrong in the capitol.
Philly - fading, but still dangerous with all those pitchers - and the ever present possibility that the old hitters will rise up for one last gasp. Everything went wrong last year - if things were to go right this year, they could slither into the post-season and cause trouble. Their problem is that they are in a tough division (well, behind 2 tough teams) - it will be hard to get close enough...
Florida - is Giancarlo Stanton the loneliest man in America? is he checking out houses in Boston and New York as we speak? Will some surprise team pull the trigger for him? (Washington? Detroit? San Francisco?) What odds do you give that he will last the year in Miami?
New York - poor bastards.
Central:
Cincinnati - this is another division that is very difficult to predict. The Reds, though, are another contender for the best team, in the game. Pitching - Cueto, Latos, etc. - Chapman, Marshall, Broxton; Votto and Bruce and Phillips and Choo and - they're really good. Deep and talented with a track record, with promise - a good bet, I think...
SL - they have some old timers who could fade, but plenty of solid talent - I don't hate them anymore, so I can take a cooler look at them. They have front line pitching, pitching depth; they do rely on some ancient outfielders and some uninspiring, but useful, ball players - but still seem quite capable of continuing to haunt the post-season...
Pittsburgh - this is being perverse, there are probably no reasons to pick them ahead of Milwaukee, but I am going to do it anyway. I was thinking Andrew McCutcheon might be the loneliest man in America, but in fact, they have some decent players around him. Maybe. Sometimes.
Milwaukee - They are probably better than Pittsburgh - though they weren't all that great with Greinke and Hart and one is gone and one hurt... We will see.
Chicago - hopeless. Some nice players getting developed, but still...
West:
SF - might as well. Part of what gives you pause is that they did what they did without getting the best from a bunch of players - if Pence and Sandoval hit, if Lincecum comes back - this is a team capable of greatness. Though even without that, they should slither into the post-season, and are then more than capable of winning it all, with all that pitching.
LA - on paper, there is a lot to like; in the real world - I don't know. But talent will out, sooner or later - chemistry and the like are not going to win and lose ball games very often. The pitching is impressive - we'll see where it takes them.
Arizona - trading players like Upton for character guys is a good way to finish fourth. Character only really matters when you are finishing fourth and you don't want guys punching each other in the dugout.
Colorado - I believe they are again devoid of pitching. There were a couple years there where Rockies starters were getting drafted in fantasy leagues - not so much anymore. Make what you will of that.
SD - they seem to creep a little closer to not being an embarrassment every year - so who knows. They also seem capable of winning games for no conceivable reason, which is worth something.
So: all right - who will do what? Wild Cards - AL: Boston, Texas. NL: Atlanta - SL. World series? oy - Detroit vs. Washington - though Boston/Washington is the one I want.
Awards?
AL:
MVP - should have been Trout last year - might as well pick him this year.
Cy Young - Verlander, until someone else beats him
Rookie of the Year - wishful thinking, sure, but Jackie Bradley Jr.
NL:
MVP - there's a fair amount of competition here. Braun generally puts up the numbers, though it might be a matter of time before he puts up a 50 game suspension. Votto has one and could get another any time. How good will Bryce Harper be? can Hayward step up a notch? could Stanton's team win enough to make anyone remember he exists? can Kemp stay healthy? Ad Gon recover? Will Posey keep playing like he has? I'll say Votto, this year.
Cy Young - Strasbourg is bound to win it sooner or later.
Rookie - I should have an opinion - there seem to be lots of pitchers around this year (the AL has more offense) - I'm going togo with Shelby Miller, though that might be because I have him in three different fantasy leagues. Sad, I know, but hey, you have to root for something!
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Ad Gone
[Probably a good one to cross-post from the Listening Ear...]
Gone? Gone... It's a ballsy move for the hometown nice - trading both last year's big money acquisitions, plus Josh Beckett, for prospects - though probably easier to take then most salaries for prospects deals. Gonzalez hasn't quite been the world beater here he was supposed to be - maybe he's been hurt, maybe he's unhappy, maybe he's wilting under the pressure of the big city, maybe - who knows. Odds are, he's going to earn that contract, here or elsewhere - but he hasn't yet. And Crawford has been a disaster. Maybe nothing you could foresee - he had a bad start, got hurt, came back and stunk, was hurt more than they thought, and has stayed hurt, and is hurt now... all that money... And Beckett has gone off the burn. He's to blame for all the clubhouse dissent, they say. Who knows about that, but they are sure sick of him here.
The point is, the sox have stunk out the joint since the beginning of last September - after being on top of the world this time last year. The decline was precipitous, and the expected recovery never came. They've hit all along - but the pitching has been dreadful. They need to do something about that. Some of it, of course, is that the people who are, in fact, established, front of the rotation starters have to pitch like it. Lester, Buchholz - Beckett - need to pitch like it. Lackey, at least, had the decency to get hurt and go away... but that's just part of it. Looking at the parade of scrubs the Sox have run out there after Lester and company, it's no wonder they have been so bad. Last year's dregs - Andrew Miller, grampa Wakefield after his 80 good innings, Eric Bedard? - were, maybe - well, officially - the worst ever. This year's failures - from Daniel Bard (ruined, for no good reason) to Rockies cast offs Morales and Cook - may not match those depths, but god almighty. What a disaster.
So this deal - full of prospects, young arms, mostly, is what is needed here. The sox are still turning out decent hitters down on the farm - but they have been a while since they have brought up a pitcher who is worth having. The cupboard is bare - it needs to be restocked. The thing is - the team was scoring runs this year without Crawford, and with Ad-Gon hitting like James Loney - so they should keep right on scoring runs. They have some money again - they should be able to turn that into something after the season - pitchers, I hope (and I hope they do a better job of picking them than John Lackey), offense doesn't hurt... If not in free agents, then in those arbitration eligible types that mediocre teams like to get rid of while they can... r the Carlos Gonzalez', with their big contracts on losing teams. hey'll have more to offer anyway...
We'll see. On balance - I am sorry to see Gonzalez go, but if he can take the other two with him, then I guess I won't complain.
Gone? Gone... It's a ballsy move for the hometown nice - trading both last year's big money acquisitions, plus Josh Beckett, for prospects - though probably easier to take then most salaries for prospects deals. Gonzalez hasn't quite been the world beater here he was supposed to be - maybe he's been hurt, maybe he's unhappy, maybe he's wilting under the pressure of the big city, maybe - who knows. Odds are, he's going to earn that contract, here or elsewhere - but he hasn't yet. And Crawford has been a disaster. Maybe nothing you could foresee - he had a bad start, got hurt, came back and stunk, was hurt more than they thought, and has stayed hurt, and is hurt now... all that money... And Beckett has gone off the burn. He's to blame for all the clubhouse dissent, they say. Who knows about that, but they are sure sick of him here.
The point is, the sox have stunk out the joint since the beginning of last September - after being on top of the world this time last year. The decline was precipitous, and the expected recovery never came. They've hit all along - but the pitching has been dreadful. They need to do something about that. Some of it, of course, is that the people who are, in fact, established, front of the rotation starters have to pitch like it. Lester, Buchholz - Beckett - need to pitch like it. Lackey, at least, had the decency to get hurt and go away... but that's just part of it. Looking at the parade of scrubs the Sox have run out there after Lester and company, it's no wonder they have been so bad. Last year's dregs - Andrew Miller, grampa Wakefield after his 80 good innings, Eric Bedard? - were, maybe - well, officially - the worst ever. This year's failures - from Daniel Bard (ruined, for no good reason) to Rockies cast offs Morales and Cook - may not match those depths, but god almighty. What a disaster.
So this deal - full of prospects, young arms, mostly, is what is needed here. The sox are still turning out decent hitters down on the farm - but they have been a while since they have brought up a pitcher who is worth having. The cupboard is bare - it needs to be restocked. The thing is - the team was scoring runs this year without Crawford, and with Ad-Gon hitting like James Loney - so they should keep right on scoring runs. They have some money again - they should be able to turn that into something after the season - pitchers, I hope (and I hope they do a better job of picking them than John Lackey), offense doesn't hurt... If not in free agents, then in those arbitration eligible types that mediocre teams like to get rid of while they can... r the Carlos Gonzalez', with their big contracts on losing teams. hey'll have more to offer anyway...
We'll see. On balance - I am sorry to see Gonzalez go, but if he can take the other two with him, then I guess I won't complain.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
3 World Series' and One Fantasy World
DId you know that Curt Schilling has designed a role playing game? Can you get a bloody sock as a relic?
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Dragon Tales
We ought to try adding an adventure blog to track details of our playing. It would be interesting to have details of each to go back to down the road, but it could also be fun to see how each of us views the adventure. We could compile a look at it from each characters point of view (or at least, each player at the table). If we wanted, we could create separate threads for each arc.
It makes sense to have it separate from this feed, let this be for ideas, brainstorming, adventure building and rules discussion, and the other to be just for a log of adventures. I've started a test blog at http://fireballgulch.blogspot.com/, but haven't worked out the details yet, and figured it would make sense to think it out first.
Any thoughts or ideas?
It makes sense to have it separate from this feed, let this be for ideas, brainstorming, adventure building and rules discussion, and the other to be just for a log of adventures. I've started a test blog at http://fireballgulch.blogspot.com/, but haven't worked out the details yet, and figured it would make sense to think it out first.
Any thoughts or ideas?
Monday, January 16, 2012
Upcoming Adventures
I guess this is straightforward - any ideas about coordinating settings? I was thinking about fiery monsters - I'm happy with that part of it; but what kind of settings would be interesting?
I was thinking the hook might be something very simple - people report that the old watchtower on the hill has been smoking for a week. They go to find out. Thye run into trouble on the way.
Thoughts?
I was thinking the hook might be something very simple - people report that the old watchtower on the hill has been smoking for a week. They go to find out. Thye run into trouble on the way.
Thoughts?
Friday, January 13, 2012
Daleks and Death Knights
My intent between Thanksgiving and Christmas was to revisit
the Dalek dungeon. I liked the drow Wizard and wanted to create an adventure to
lead into the final encounter. The story is shaping up well, though I’ve yet to
finish all of its parts. I made it modular with a variety of choices on how to
proceed that all led to the same finale.
While working on it, I asked Thomas what kind of magic item
to use in one part of the encounter. I wanted something big and important,
something unique. He suggested a palantÃr
and a light went off in my head. I’ve wanted to run two kinds of adventure
since reading The Lord of the Rings,
one involving a quest for the seven lost palantiri and the other to defeat the
Witch King of Angmar. When he made his suggestion, the two snapped together
perfectly. The artifact is one of the lost stones, and the Witch King is
desperate to have it. Unfortunately, the drow armies have long been battling
with the Witch King for dominance of the ice realm of Angmar. The drow Wizard
has been gathering supplies and support to combine with her alliance of Frost
Giants against the Witch King’s forces. While doing so, she became aware of the
lost stone and its attractive appeal to the Witch King and is eager to recover
it first and use it against him.
The encounter in this adventure can be resolved in a couple
of ways. Either the drow get away with the treasure and it serves as an ongoing
temptation to the party to continue searching for it, or the characters end up
with it, thwarting the drow’s plans, but with no idea of what they hold. I
don’t know yet what to make it, so it would require some activation to be
useful. In any event, the stone would require a quest of its own to research
and discover its powers. It would also be a lightning rod for attention from
the drow and the Witch King’s forces.
The Witch King is a Death Knight, with a following of undead
and similar shadow dwellers. He would be the focus of a future adventure, one
connected with researching the stones. For now, he is another big monster to be
concerned with. Perhaps he is associated with other kinds of giants and various
dragons as well as the undead.
There is a war going on in the background between these two
camps, well up in the mountains, but with constant trickle-down effects making
their way into the civilized world. There are parties looking for the stones
(or info on them), there are raiders seeking food, money, or slaves, and there
are fugitives of the war streaming down out of the hills looking for new lives
(giants, orcs, ogres, etc.,). The beauty of this is that their flight is likely
to drive others out ahead of them, so an adventuring party could encounter any
number of creatures in any setting.
It also makes sense to keep the big leaders alive for as
long as possible, so they can recur throughout a campaign arc. They are
constantly taken to the brink and driven away, only to resurface in a new way
with a new threat.
This is a long-term project in the main areas, but could
generate immediate casual encounters within the storyline. I like the idea of some unique magic items/artifacts. The trouble with the current system and magic items is that they're all the same, 1st level or 30th, only the attack bonuses increase. A vorpul used to be a unique and powerful item, as was a Holy Avenger, or a +5 Defender. It would be nice to reincorporate some of that element if possible.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Some Broader Factions
This is less about specific adventure hooks than about factions that might be involved in events in this area. This is by no means an exhaustive list - just some of the groups, or types of groups, that influence things.
1. Githyanki have been plaguing the area, raiding trade routes, towns, mines, castles, etc. - generally, I imagine, avoiding any full scale fights, but generally making things difficult. They have brought a good number of monsters in their wake, some allied, some just taking advantage of the disorder the Githyanki have spread. We've dealt with some of them already - they might now be weakened... This doesn't change the other monsters that might be taking advantage of their presence, and might create new conflicts, especially if people start looking around for their lair.
2. We've run into Drow a couple times in our recent adventures - there might well be more of them. They might have been allied with the Githyanki - or rivals to the Githyanki - or both... and might become more prominant now. They are also likely to have other allies - giants or such... I think they would have a slightly different attitude toward things - Githyanki seem to behave mostly as pirates, raiders - DRow seem a little more likely to be looking at larger political ambitions, conquest, or at least political ambitions against their underdark rivals... (It might also be more likely for their to be Drow NPC wandering around - which can create some challenges, since not all Drow might be automatically evil.)
3. The Drow and Githyanki I imagine are both more inland - probably coming from the mountains. I think there might be other factions on the coast. I think this kind of coast would be quite rife with pirates - smugglers, raiders, of every kind. I think there could be a couple major factions there - whose feuding could involve characters at various points. (Somewhere along the line, if I ever get any energy at all, I really want to play a seaborne adventure - boats and harbors and islands and haunted lighthouses and all the rest, and pirates and castaways and the works....)
4. Politics - I think the main political turmoil is in the valley in the northern hills, which is a small kingdom. The king is missing - his brother is ruling in his place - and is fighting with his barons and their people over the taxes to save the king (or enrich the prince, depending on who you listen to.) The results are pure Robin Hood - honest men outlawed and all the rest... This can serve as background - a reason for some of the breakdown of security, maybe the source of a lot of the armed soldiers running around (outlaws, exiles, etc.) - as well as a place for mercenaries to find jobs. It could also blow up into warfare, or pull characters in for intrigues, rescues, and so on.
5. Finally - I think all these things have drawn a good number of adventurers looking to get in on the action. We've run across a few of these already, and can keep running into them in various contexts. These can come in all types - honest heroes - opportunists - outright villains, either looking for their own advantage of allying with evil forces (drow or githyanki or pirates or whatever)... Yeomen unfairly outlawed or simple thugs... I hope over time we can start working up encounters among these people - with recurring characters....
Our gang has met Hashtag and Splat, half orc barbarian and halfling thief, who will probably turn up again... others as well - we can see how they can fit into all this.
1. Githyanki have been plaguing the area, raiding trade routes, towns, mines, castles, etc. - generally, I imagine, avoiding any full scale fights, but generally making things difficult. They have brought a good number of monsters in their wake, some allied, some just taking advantage of the disorder the Githyanki have spread. We've dealt with some of them already - they might now be weakened... This doesn't change the other monsters that might be taking advantage of their presence, and might create new conflicts, especially if people start looking around for their lair.
2. We've run into Drow a couple times in our recent adventures - there might well be more of them. They might have been allied with the Githyanki - or rivals to the Githyanki - or both... and might become more prominant now. They are also likely to have other allies - giants or such... I think they would have a slightly different attitude toward things - Githyanki seem to behave mostly as pirates, raiders - DRow seem a little more likely to be looking at larger political ambitions, conquest, or at least political ambitions against their underdark rivals... (It might also be more likely for their to be Drow NPC wandering around - which can create some challenges, since not all Drow might be automatically evil.)
3. The Drow and Githyanki I imagine are both more inland - probably coming from the mountains. I think there might be other factions on the coast. I think this kind of coast would be quite rife with pirates - smugglers, raiders, of every kind. I think there could be a couple major factions there - whose feuding could involve characters at various points. (Somewhere along the line, if I ever get any energy at all, I really want to play a seaborne adventure - boats and harbors and islands and haunted lighthouses and all the rest, and pirates and castaways and the works....)
4. Politics - I think the main political turmoil is in the valley in the northern hills, which is a small kingdom. The king is missing - his brother is ruling in his place - and is fighting with his barons and their people over the taxes to save the king (or enrich the prince, depending on who you listen to.) The results are pure Robin Hood - honest men outlawed and all the rest... This can serve as background - a reason for some of the breakdown of security, maybe the source of a lot of the armed soldiers running around (outlaws, exiles, etc.) - as well as a place for mercenaries to find jobs. It could also blow up into warfare, or pull characters in for intrigues, rescues, and so on.
5. Finally - I think all these things have drawn a good number of adventurers looking to get in on the action. We've run across a few of these already, and can keep running into them in various contexts. These can come in all types - honest heroes - opportunists - outright villains, either looking for their own advantage of allying with evil forces (drow or githyanki or pirates or whatever)... Yeomen unfairly outlawed or simple thugs... I hope over time we can start working up encounters among these people - with recurring characters....
Our gang has met Hashtag and Splat, half orc barbarian and halfling thief, who will probably turn up again... others as well - we can see how they can fit into all this.
This is a quick stretch to better fit with a 10 mile scale. A 20 mile scale doesn't look like it would work with the coastline, but if the waterways were extending inland, the day journey distances would be more useful. It might even work best with a 5 mile scale. If you think of Moosehead as the big lake, it probably should be between 50 and 100 miles inland. Augusta is probably 25 miles upriver.
Hooks and Folks
Hooks
1.
Villains have taken over the keep on the hill.
Someone needs to rescue the prisoners. Do they storm the front gates or sneak
in the back?
2.
There’s a plague in Willowville and someone needs
to deliver 20 potions of vitality to the town post haste. There are trolls
controlling the only bridge between here and there, and with word of their
vulnerability spreading like wildfire, there may be more trouble on the road.
Can you make it through with enough potions intact?
3.
Doppelgangers have been infiltrating the temple
of [diety here], and the town cleric wishes for assistance in locating and
destroying them. And what happened to the original priests?
4.
Good money is being paid out for proper potions
supplies. Check the list and gather what you dare?
5.
The drow have set up a temple to Lolth in the
abandoned abbey outside the ruins of Bainbridge. This abomination must be
eradicated, and the temple purified.
6.
Ghosts have begun disturbing the monks of North
Oakvale, and they have issued a call to town for assistance in discovering why
they have become active, and who could be behind it.
7.
Many travelers have reported weird things from
the old shore road between Town and Ocean Point. It’s hard to know what is
true, with so many different stories floating around. Perhaps speaking to
someone at the church will give a better idea. You might also try to ask the
travelers directly at Whisper Inn. Someone at the church might have a keener
insight into the history of Ocean Point and the paths between here and there.
8.
Who’s Who in Town
• Jenny
Baker – raised in her father’s inn, spending long hours throughout her young
life in the kitchen helping prepare everything from morning bread and pastries
to traveling fare and evening desserts, Jenny more than learned the art of
baking, she mastered it. Since reaching her adulthood, she has opened her own
shop across the street from her father’s inn and never looked back. Bustling
through a haze of flour, she is a first-class source of information on anyone
in town. And her cakes aren’t bad either.
• Wally
Baker – local innkeeper, he’s everybody’s friend, everybody’s worst enemy. For
years the only place in town to spend the night, find a drink, spread some
gossip, or meet companions, the inn has recently found competition from a new
establishment on the outskirts of town, on the road into the mountains. Still
the place to be on the river, the Swallow Inn has been around long enough to
develop a more family friendly environment. Wally is set in his ways, loved by
regulars, but difficult to get to know. Still, he’s no fool, and will be
gracious enough to good paying customers. And with four decades in business, he
is a wealth of local information. The difficulty is in pinning him down to carry
on a conversation, and keeping him focused on continuing it.
• Elwyn
Bowyer – the new kid in town, Elwyn has been opened a new inn on the road
leading to the mines that keep the city prospering. A half-elf from the
northern forests, Elwyn first came to town five years ago and opened the
Miner’s Delight two years ago. He has made no friends with the Bakers, and
primarily serves miners and tradesmen dealing with the mines. As such, the
Miner’s Delight caters to a rougher crowd and a more dangerous client base. He
knows many things about the wild and has understands the politics of the mines
and mountains. He doesn’t know much about the townsfolk, but is an astute judge
of character, and has formed sound opinions of many, though he is difficult to
pry for info. He is a master at the craft himself, and will pick up on lazy
attempts to pump him.
• Bellamy
Boys – many of the town guards come from the Bellamy clan, enough so that they
are referred to as the Bellamy Boys. Owen Bellamy is the head of the clan, and
the head of the guards. He’s no great shakes for info or conversation, but
knows how to use his head – in a fight. There are a number of Bellamys on the
guard, and all are slow but tough. Nat Thorn and his cousin Mark Janus are the
exceptions to the rule. They have only been in town for the last six or seven
years, and earned their way into guard duty with their skills in a brawl, but
they are slick, and often follow their own agenda in any circumstance. They can
outthink the rest of the guard combined, and can be bought for many reasons. Be
on your guard around them.
• Nellie
Bright – runs the general store. Any supplies for hiking, fishing, or
adventuring can be found in her store. She doesn’t stock any weapons beyond
daggers, hunting knives and archery equipment, but knows what’s good or bad.
She used to be quite an adventurer herself in the old days, rumor has it, but a
bum knee turned her into a merchant. She is close-mouthed about her past as a
rule, so no one in town knows more than gossip about her, but she misses the
thrill of the wild and the scent of blood on blade, so she will open up to
worthy adventurers. She keeps some “special” supplies in her basement (select
magic items and weaponry), and will barter with the right clients.
• Jaimie
Bellamy – runs the local forge. He can create any kind of metalwork given
enough time, and owns the outright patent on Bellamy brains. It is illegal to
sell weapons in town, but it is common knowledge that Jaimie can construct
them, and he does well supplementing his day wages by dabbling in the black
market trade of arms. He lives on a farm five miles out of town, and has a
forge there that he uses to craft weaponry. He supplies townspeople and miners
alike, as well as anyone willing to pay his inflated prices. His wife Nan runs
the farm and keeps all-comers honest while Jaimie is at his forge in town.
Rumor is she’s a witch or mage, but no one alive knows the secret. They know to
stay away unless ready to trade honestly. She’s also suspected of enchanting
her husband’s weapons, so they carry better bonuses and powers. Few alive have
ever seen her close up, and she is rumored to have survived a terrible fire at
some point in her past and to be horribly scarred or disfigured. She takes
great care to conceal herself whenever out in public. Of course there are
others who believe she is descended from Drow.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Map
This is the basic shape of the setting I have been thinking about. I don't know how far I want to fill it in - I'm more interested in giving the area a basic shape and geography, that can be detailed as needed. It's not much of a map - a sketch - some basic features noted. The bay, the city, obviously... Some of the geography - the hashmarks are cliffs, the squiggly lines generally indicate hills. The heavy squiggly line across the top generally indicates where the high mountains start. The basic geography is - the high mountains in the north, that come down into this area. The bay itself is surrounded by highlands - cliffs in the north, rough hills terrain in the south (like Maine). Above Bayport, there is a little river valley, with lakes and such, and smaller rivers draining into it. It's separated by a high ridge line and steep cliffs from a shallow estuary on the west. Everything above that, though, is very wild - jagged cloastlines, fjords and mountains and hidden coves, etc. There's another valley off to the east, with bigger lakes etc. Southeast of Bayport is probably lower, farmland and so on, probably some swamp in there somewhere. In the south, there's probably another country on that peninsular - which is probably all highlands too. The area in between can be anything, I imagine. I think there should be a lot more islands in the bay and ocean, too....
Scale is, roughly - about 10 miles across the mouth of the bay...
I've left as much of it open as I can, so that pretty much anything we come up with can be fit in without too much trouble. There's quite a bit of recycling of old maps, too, especially from the early drafts of some of the Waynesburg stuff. That whole eastern river valley that we never really did anything with is in there... Anyway - here it is.
Scale is, roughly - about 10 miles across the mouth of the bay...
I've left as much of it open as I can, so that pretty much anything we come up with can be fit in without too much trouble. There's quite a bit of recycling of old maps, too, especially from the early drafts of some of the Waynesburg stuff. That whole eastern river valley that we never really did anything with is in there... Anyway - here it is.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
On Preparation vs. Improv
The biggest thing I noticed from the games we played this Christmas, is that to change the style of the game, we would need to build adventures in advance. I don't think that is necessary to play - the fact is, DD4 is an excellent miniatures war game, and one of the things that makes it work so well is that it is very easy to set up a combat encounter. You take a map, you add up an appropriate group of monsters, you write down stats and roll initiative and play. It's easy to set up - the encounters themselves are fairly easy to play (at least we've been doing it long enough that it's not too hard to run) - if you choose a decent array of monsters and an interesting map, the fights themselves are usually relatively challenging and fun... I admit - I played war games before I played D&D, and have always liked those kinds of games as much as anything - I could do that forever without minding it in the least. It really is a robust system - part of what makes it easy to work with is the fact that, once you've played a bit, there's not a lot of difference between 3rd and 12th level games. There's not a lot of difference in the flavor or mechanics of playing higher level characters - you have a little more variety in your powers (and the monsters' powers), the fights last a bit longer, but you basically do the same things. All of which means you can keep playing, at whatever level you want, without really changing much.
The problem is that that is leaving out an awful lot of what makes D&D D&D. Most of the character development stuff, the role playing, the world building - the sense of a narrative, of continuity from encounter to encounter. Combat D&D is fun - but it feels like you are playing it out of a box, every time - years of playing the same characters, and they still feel more like game pieces than people. Not to mention the fact that we are leaving out whole chunks of the game itself - I mean, that last adventure is the first time, I think, any one of us has used a ritual!
One thing our attempts to change things around shows, I think, is that to make a more varied campaign, to create a strong narrative sense (which, ultimately, is probably the most important element in the full D&D experience), you have to set up the adventure in advance. We need to build dungeons. They could be dungeon crawls, outdoor adventures, towns, even just series' of combat encounters - but they need to be linked before the fact, the seams and connections have to be built. I don't think this is too hard to do - it just has to be done. I think a lot of the pieces for something like this are there already - rivalries with NPCs, encounters with a couple likely factions - Drow, Githyanki, giants and trolls - which might be working together or could be rivals themselves... Some of the relationships are already there - though to play them effectively, we do need to plan out how they work. That was the biggest problem with the things I tried to do - I didn't quite know where things should go. Actions should have consequences, but I had no idea what sort of consequences should come from any kind of action.
That's one thing we would need. Another is a bit more attention to the environment - obstacles and traps and whatnot, not to mention simple things like distance, time, etc. Moving from place to place, what kinds of challenges emerge - I think I can imagine what sort of things would do this. Like in the encounters we placed - if we played the process of getting from the river crossing with the giants to the cave with the Githyanki (follow the river? follow the giants? follow a road?), we could have worked in a number of things - more obstacles, traps, more encounters, as well as keeping closer watch on things like healing, daily powers and so on. I can imagine, after the fact, how all that could have been turned into a campaign - the trick now is to imagine how to turn it into a campaign before we play.
One more thing - I think the designers of the game meant it to work like this. I think they designed the game to work out of the box, to be scalable, modular, to allow players to use it strictly as a miniatures game. They also gave rules that you can use to do something else with - I can't say, even now, how well they work... Of course, earlier versions were built even more explicitly around the idea that someone would be preparing adventures ahead of time and running them - I suppose that hasn't changed. Just that the miniatures game has been built into the game at its core.
The problem is that that is leaving out an awful lot of what makes D&D D&D. Most of the character development stuff, the role playing, the world building - the sense of a narrative, of continuity from encounter to encounter. Combat D&D is fun - but it feels like you are playing it out of a box, every time - years of playing the same characters, and they still feel more like game pieces than people. Not to mention the fact that we are leaving out whole chunks of the game itself - I mean, that last adventure is the first time, I think, any one of us has used a ritual!
One thing our attempts to change things around shows, I think, is that to make a more varied campaign, to create a strong narrative sense (which, ultimately, is probably the most important element in the full D&D experience), you have to set up the adventure in advance. We need to build dungeons. They could be dungeon crawls, outdoor adventures, towns, even just series' of combat encounters - but they need to be linked before the fact, the seams and connections have to be built. I don't think this is too hard to do - it just has to be done. I think a lot of the pieces for something like this are there already - rivalries with NPCs, encounters with a couple likely factions - Drow, Githyanki, giants and trolls - which might be working together or could be rivals themselves... Some of the relationships are already there - though to play them effectively, we do need to plan out how they work. That was the biggest problem with the things I tried to do - I didn't quite know where things should go. Actions should have consequences, but I had no idea what sort of consequences should come from any kind of action.
That's one thing we would need. Another is a bit more attention to the environment - obstacles and traps and whatnot, not to mention simple things like distance, time, etc. Moving from place to place, what kinds of challenges emerge - I think I can imagine what sort of things would do this. Like in the encounters we placed - if we played the process of getting from the river crossing with the giants to the cave with the Githyanki (follow the river? follow the giants? follow a road?), we could have worked in a number of things - more obstacles, traps, more encounters, as well as keeping closer watch on things like healing, daily powers and so on. I can imagine, after the fact, how all that could have been turned into a campaign - the trick now is to imagine how to turn it into a campaign before we play.
One more thing - I think the designers of the game meant it to work like this. I think they designed the game to work out of the box, to be scalable, modular, to allow players to use it strictly as a miniatures game. They also gave rules that you can use to do something else with - I can't say, even now, how well they work... Of course, earlier versions were built even more explicitly around the idea that someone would be preparing adventures ahead of time and running them - I suppose that hasn't changed. Just that the miniatures game has been built into the game at its core.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Setting and Situation
This is what I have been thinking:
First - I like the setting I posted about back in January - Bayport (with all the trimmings - the ocean, the deep water port, the cliffs around the bay, caves, villages and hideouts, made for piracy - etc.), plus a Kingdom (more inland, hills, valleys, lakes, rivers and so on.) Both surrounded by wilderness, lawlessness and so on - both built in old places, so plenty of ruins and dungeons and old stuff to deal with.
For immediate story purposes, and for the setting of the things we've been playing - I've been thinking about this. It's oriented more toward the kingdom than Bayport. I think it goes something like this: there is a King, but the King himself has gone on a Richard the Lionheart type jaunt, to fight infidels or something, and gotten himself taken prisoner, with a huge ransom demand. He left his younger brother in charge (like old Richard), and just like Prince John, the brother is an incompetent would be usurper. He may he levying the kind of taxes to pay a king's ransom, but he's in no hurry to pay it. This has caused the predictable resistance - the barons and other potentates are angling for power - the peasants and townspeople are resisting, which leads to the Prince outlawing them, which leads to formerly honest men running amok in the woods. All this is causing the predictable breakdown of security law and order, and making the whole place dangerous indeed.
But that has been escalating recently, because our friends the Githyanki have set up some kind of a lair somewhere that they are using as a base for raiding in the area. And that has further broken down the security and law and order of the area - especially since the Githyanki aren't thinking of any of this as conquered territory - they aren't making any effort to keep others out. So the place is overrun with monsters of all kinds. I imagine that the edges of this kingdom would always be hazardous - a frontier - but the Githyanki's presence has changed the monster population from the old days of Orcs and hobgoblins and gnomes and such to Trolls and Giants and Yuan-ti and the like. At the same time - because Bayport and maybe the kingdom as well are significant trading points, there is an endless depth of wealth to be plundered, so the monsters keep coming - probably not looking for conquest - more looking for victims and plunder.
And - along with all this - comes the inevitable parade of adventurers. NPC parties looking for plunder of their own - as well as adventure, fame, jobs, maybe, in their case, political power. THis is on top of a culture that's already fairly edgy - even in good times, there is a lot going on - pirates, outlaws, raiding parties, exploration of old ruins, etc. All this stuff is just a bit more volatile now than it was a couple years ago (so to speak.)
As for playing it - I kind of imagine a few types of locations: 1) you would have fairly stable central places - Bayport, the big towns in this kingdom, where you likely wouldn't find monsters, but you could find quite a few NPC type villains (as well as monsters that can pass as NPCs - vampires, undead, etc.) - and probably the Githyanki and their ilk, though sneakily. 2) You would have towns, villages, roads that are close enough to civilization that monsters might be rare, though not unknown - society still functions, but it's been undermined... 3) areas that are almost completely overrun by monsters - including towns, castles, monasteries, mines, etc. that might have been abandoned, or might be operating under constant threat, etc. - as well as plain howling wilderness, dungeons, etc. This might not be all that far from the other places - might be underground....
What I think this can do it provide a framework for adventures, especially the kinds of somewhat improvised adventures we've been doing, though it would be easy enough to work in more structured things as well. I hope it's loose enough to allow more or less any kind of adventure to be worked up from it, while setting up a frame that can connect anything we come up with. Hopefully, we can come up with a number of different kinds of situations - and use this kind of an outline to connect them, to rationalize them. I think if we want to develop the role playing elements and story elements, I think it helps to have a kind of background to work off. Something like this - an absent king, a semi-legitimate usurper, a bunch of other power centers (other nobles, the church, the towns, outside adventurers, plus the monsters themselves), and the external threat of the monsters - seems to me to create a situation you can run almost infinite variation out of.
First - I like the setting I posted about back in January - Bayport (with all the trimmings - the ocean, the deep water port, the cliffs around the bay, caves, villages and hideouts, made for piracy - etc.), plus a Kingdom (more inland, hills, valleys, lakes, rivers and so on.) Both surrounded by wilderness, lawlessness and so on - both built in old places, so plenty of ruins and dungeons and old stuff to deal with.
For immediate story purposes, and for the setting of the things we've been playing - I've been thinking about this. It's oriented more toward the kingdom than Bayport. I think it goes something like this: there is a King, but the King himself has gone on a Richard the Lionheart type jaunt, to fight infidels or something, and gotten himself taken prisoner, with a huge ransom demand. He left his younger brother in charge (like old Richard), and just like Prince John, the brother is an incompetent would be usurper. He may he levying the kind of taxes to pay a king's ransom, but he's in no hurry to pay it. This has caused the predictable resistance - the barons and other potentates are angling for power - the peasants and townspeople are resisting, which leads to the Prince outlawing them, which leads to formerly honest men running amok in the woods. All this is causing the predictable breakdown of security law and order, and making the whole place dangerous indeed.
But that has been escalating recently, because our friends the Githyanki have set up some kind of a lair somewhere that they are using as a base for raiding in the area. And that has further broken down the security and law and order of the area - especially since the Githyanki aren't thinking of any of this as conquered territory - they aren't making any effort to keep others out. So the place is overrun with monsters of all kinds. I imagine that the edges of this kingdom would always be hazardous - a frontier - but the Githyanki's presence has changed the monster population from the old days of Orcs and hobgoblins and gnomes and such to Trolls and Giants and Yuan-ti and the like. At the same time - because Bayport and maybe the kingdom as well are significant trading points, there is an endless depth of wealth to be plundered, so the monsters keep coming - probably not looking for conquest - more looking for victims and plunder.
And - along with all this - comes the inevitable parade of adventurers. NPC parties looking for plunder of their own - as well as adventure, fame, jobs, maybe, in their case, political power. THis is on top of a culture that's already fairly edgy - even in good times, there is a lot going on - pirates, outlaws, raiding parties, exploration of old ruins, etc. All this stuff is just a bit more volatile now than it was a couple years ago (so to speak.)
As for playing it - I kind of imagine a few types of locations: 1) you would have fairly stable central places - Bayport, the big towns in this kingdom, where you likely wouldn't find monsters, but you could find quite a few NPC type villains (as well as monsters that can pass as NPCs - vampires, undead, etc.) - and probably the Githyanki and their ilk, though sneakily. 2) You would have towns, villages, roads that are close enough to civilization that monsters might be rare, though not unknown - society still functions, but it's been undermined... 3) areas that are almost completely overrun by monsters - including towns, castles, monasteries, mines, etc. that might have been abandoned, or might be operating under constant threat, etc. - as well as plain howling wilderness, dungeons, etc. This might not be all that far from the other places - might be underground....
What I think this can do it provide a framework for adventures, especially the kinds of somewhat improvised adventures we've been doing, though it would be easy enough to work in more structured things as well. I hope it's loose enough to allow more or less any kind of adventure to be worked up from it, while setting up a frame that can connect anything we come up with. Hopefully, we can come up with a number of different kinds of situations - and use this kind of an outline to connect them, to rationalize them. I think if we want to develop the role playing elements and story elements, I think it helps to have a kind of background to work off. Something like this - an absent king, a semi-legitimate usurper, a bunch of other power centers (other nobles, the church, the towns, outside adventurers, plus the monsters themselves), and the external threat of the monsters - seems to me to create a situation you can run almost infinite variation out of.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
NaNoMo Postscript
I tried this this year - not officially, just in word. I did all right - I hit 40,000 words, more or less, a pretty decent showing, writing nights and weekends (and rather intermittently at that), taking a week off for Thanksgiving. I suppose the results are full of the problems you'd expect - rambling and repetitive and discontinuous, and bogged down by endless dialogue scenes, that would put Quentin Tarantino to sleep - but not too terrible. I tried to give myself a decent chance of getting to 50K - using very familiar material, running out a simple, but loose-limbed plot line - accomplished by shamelessly rifling all the things I've played with, written about, what have you, for the last 40 years. A mashup of the Hardy Boys, D&D, west figures, every western movie with ranchers fighting farmers and sometimes each other - which is about 95% of them - plus Deadwood, with locations imagined from real places (gram's house in Vermont, the hill behind our old house, the hill behind the house now) or swiped from books (got a "Witch's Hollow", imported directly from The Screeching Owl Mystery!) I hoped it would write itself - that if I could come up with a reasonable plot line, that gave me an idea what was going to happen, and where people would be, and what they would be doing, I could just start and go until I stopped. I knew all the characters before I started - Hardy Boys stand-ins, West Figures, D&D characters, though those three things overlap extensively; knew the settings - the physical layouts were stolen from real places, the general lay of the land worked out in D&D games through the years, the towns - Waynesburg, Hillsburg, as expected... it worked, reasonable well.
It's an appealing project. It has that one great advantage - a clear target, 50,000 words in 30 days - which gives the blessing to not stop - just keep typing, leave anything that works at all alone, and move on. It's a license not to over think the story, not to keep doubling back and refining things, not to worry over the words for any length of time. Just make the green lines go away. And add words. That's my difficulty usually - second guessing myself, constantly doubling back, changing things, revising... I know, of course, that writing is rewriting - that real novels (any kind of real writing) is made in editing - but that's not the problem I mean. You need to get the material down before you can refine it - and all my attempts at fiction bog down on the stories and people, and never come close to being in a place where I can think about the words, or the structure and form of the tale. I am pleased to see that this scheme did a pretty good job of overcoming that.
The results, of course, are, in story terms, nothing resembling finished - those 40k words get me - I don't know - half a story in... When I left it, Freddy Archer was riding fast to find Johnny West's crew, somewhere on the open range - thus touching off a long bout of exposition regarding Johnny West, and bringing Johnny and company into the story for the first time - Johnny being, presumably, one of the figures near the center of any broad conception of the plot... but that's okay. I might try to keep it going - it will be hard, I suspect, to maintain the same momentum, the same forward motion even - but I can hope. And, freed from the demands of those 50,000 words, the story can migrate to other media, other formats - that might improve things, actually. All this, this idea particularly, is rooted firmly in my youth - I quite deliberately tried to come up with a story like the kinds of things I made up on the fly when I was a kid with those toys - chases and searches and gun fights with Sparky West and his Mexicans in the rocks and hills of the wilderness... That stuff was always more than just stories - it was tactile - objects in space - visual - it was closer to film or comics or theater than to prose, and this stuff might do better in those media as well. It might make a good radio show - "When last we left them, Freddy and the sheriff were anxiously awaiting news from Heidrich's Strike!"
Anyway - the story itself, for what it is worth: set against a range war, between Johnny West, a big rancher, and George and Bruce Carter (played by my two general Custers), owners of an even bigger ranch. They are fighting each other, and the farmers and small ranchers of their valley - the railroad is coming, and the Carters want complete control. Against this, two kids, Frank and Josie, are kidnapped by the gunfighting son of one of the farmers - everyone starts looking for them. That's basically it, actually - once the kids disappear, the other characters start reacting, and things sort of roll along, with the forward motion of the kidnap plot augmented by the flashbacks, and wider scope of the fights over the land.
It's an appealing project. It has that one great advantage - a clear target, 50,000 words in 30 days - which gives the blessing to not stop - just keep typing, leave anything that works at all alone, and move on. It's a license not to over think the story, not to keep doubling back and refining things, not to worry over the words for any length of time. Just make the green lines go away. And add words. That's my difficulty usually - second guessing myself, constantly doubling back, changing things, revising... I know, of course, that writing is rewriting - that real novels (any kind of real writing) is made in editing - but that's not the problem I mean. You need to get the material down before you can refine it - and all my attempts at fiction bog down on the stories and people, and never come close to being in a place where I can think about the words, or the structure and form of the tale. I am pleased to see that this scheme did a pretty good job of overcoming that.
The results, of course, are, in story terms, nothing resembling finished - those 40k words get me - I don't know - half a story in... When I left it, Freddy Archer was riding fast to find Johnny West's crew, somewhere on the open range - thus touching off a long bout of exposition regarding Johnny West, and bringing Johnny and company into the story for the first time - Johnny being, presumably, one of the figures near the center of any broad conception of the plot... but that's okay. I might try to keep it going - it will be hard, I suspect, to maintain the same momentum, the same forward motion even - but I can hope. And, freed from the demands of those 50,000 words, the story can migrate to other media, other formats - that might improve things, actually. All this, this idea particularly, is rooted firmly in my youth - I quite deliberately tried to come up with a story like the kinds of things I made up on the fly when I was a kid with those toys - chases and searches and gun fights with Sparky West and his Mexicans in the rocks and hills of the wilderness... That stuff was always more than just stories - it was tactile - objects in space - visual - it was closer to film or comics or theater than to prose, and this stuff might do better in those media as well. It might make a good radio show - "When last we left them, Freddy and the sheriff were anxiously awaiting news from Heidrich's Strike!"
Anyway - the story itself, for what it is worth: set against a range war, between Johnny West, a big rancher, and George and Bruce Carter (played by my two general Custers), owners of an even bigger ranch. They are fighting each other, and the farmers and small ranchers of their valley - the railroad is coming, and the Carters want complete control. Against this, two kids, Frank and Josie, are kidnapped by the gunfighting son of one of the farmers - everyone starts looking for them. That's basically it, actually - once the kids disappear, the other characters start reacting, and things sort of roll along, with the forward motion of the kidnap plot augmented by the flashbacks, and wider scope of the fights over the land.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Speed of Play
I brainstormed with Karen for 250 miles. We thought of a couple of ideas to aid game play. First, during game play, resolve parts of the battle as mini encounters within the overall initiative order. Hank acts, then the troll he's fighting, then Perry against the same troll, then Fighting Eagle against his, Vjarne against his, their troll, and so on. It's not a big thing, but it might help keep the flow more focused during game play.
Secondly, I wondered about using a Boggle timer. Roll initiative, set up the battle map with everyone in position, then flip the timer. This should give 3 minutes for everyone to look through their sheets, read one their powers, suggest flanking maneuvers, strategy, etc. and decide on what they want to do. Then, when the timer runs out, all the powers have been chosen, and the round is resolved according to initiative. Oliver goes first, he's already decided to use Lance of Faith, so he moves his guy and casts. Then when it's Fighting Eagle's turn, he uses his chosen power with Oliver's bonus added in, and so on. As we played this week, each player in turn stopped to review his options, bringing the round to a halt. What the Boggle timer does is collect this time into one period at the start of each round to allow quicker resolution of the round itself. This should have the added benefit of keeping everyone focused on the game board during the resolution, and allow the chance to role play more as things unfold.
Secondly, I wondered about using a Boggle timer. Roll initiative, set up the battle map with everyone in position, then flip the timer. This should give 3 minutes for everyone to look through their sheets, read one their powers, suggest flanking maneuvers, strategy, etc. and decide on what they want to do. Then, when the timer runs out, all the powers have been chosen, and the round is resolved according to initiative. Oliver goes first, he's already decided to use Lance of Faith, so he moves his guy and casts. Then when it's Fighting Eagle's turn, he uses his chosen power with Oliver's bonus added in, and so on. As we played this week, each player in turn stopped to review his options, bringing the round to a halt. What the Boggle timer does is collect this time into one period at the start of each round to allow quicker resolution of the round itself. This should have the added benefit of keeping everyone focused on the game board during the resolution, and allow the chance to role play more as things unfold.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Red Sox Post-Mortem
Well, Terry Francona is gone. I suppose I should offer a post-mortem on the season. I don't know how Francona got to be the scapegoat for their collapse - I believe someone mentioned during their last game that the starters had averaged 4.2 innings a game in September - you aren't going to win doing that. ESPN collects some stats - 7.08 ERA, the worst month ever for their starters - Andrew Miller leading the way with a 11.70 ERA... right. There's a lot of sniping and backbiting going on - Francona complaining about the bums in his clubhouse, which I suppose the team will blame on him - lots of sniffing about conditioning and attitude - but the thing about those awful pitching numbers is that there was nothing surprising about them. The team ran Lackey, Wakefield and Miller out there all summer, and none of them were all that good to start with. Or - especially in Wake's case - they were clearly operating on borrowed time. You could see this coming - once Buchholz got hurt, you could see doom waiting on the horizon. I suspect a big part of the team's downfall was that the team kept winning through June and July - Lackey looked like he'd stabilized a bit; Wake was effective; Miller even had a couple decent starts. I suspect Epstein and company looked at them and thought they'd be okay - the team could slug its way out of any slumps it fell into, they were holding their own, they could tweak here or there, bring in Harden or Bedard and prop up the back of the rotation, and they'd be fine. Oh god.... Watching them - they did seem likely to hit their way to the post-season, and I could imagine Bedard getting hot (though I would hardly have bet anything on it) - but - I can't say I had many illusions about the post-season, by the middle of August. Wake, as is his habit, ran out of gas somewhere around 100-120 innings... Miller lost what little trace of effectiveness he had... Lackey appearances were a nightmare all year - Bedard was Bedard and kept the trainer busy... And so? when Beckett and Lester began to run down, it was over - the bullpen was run into the ground (and always overworked - the back of the rotation wasn't exactly soaking up innings before the collapse.) In the end - they crashed and burned, and frankly - other than the (worn out) bullpen, and the mediocrity from Lester and Beckett - nothing about it seems remotely out of order. The back end of the rotation performed exactly as I expected them to.
The thing is, they had nothing else to go to. They didn't have options in place of letting Wakefield try yet again for that 200th win - other than maybe putting Aceves in the rotation, though I don't know what that would have helped as it is, he threw the second most innings on the team (per that ESPN article.) And that ought to be a hint as to what I think about Francona leaving. The team didn't fail because he lost the clubhouse - the team failed because they had 2 major league starters. Now - Lackey has been good, and probably will be again - if Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon can rise from the dead, why not John Lackey? And Wake was, as usual, pretty good through about 120 innings. But past is past, and in the present, neither was worth a damn. Bedard was sort of okay for a while, but he's pitching with the same arm he's been occasionally pitching with all his career, so the results are predictable. Andrew Miller - may be a worthy project, but not one you put in a game when there's anything on the line. And again I say - none of this should have been surprising. And - something should have been done. And if it wasn't done - I kind of wish the team, or Epstein, would say, we ran out of pitching, we didn't have the arms to contend. Because that's the truth - even if they made the playoffs, they would be easy pickings, as things stand now.
So - I suppose it is obvious what I think they have to do in the post-season: they need to get a reliable starting pitcher. They probably should resign Papelbon and Ortiz - they should find a decent right fielder (better if they can, but that may be easier said than done) - but most of all, they need a proper starting pitcher. I do not think they can afford to assume, or hope, that Buchholz will be healthy (though I expect he will be) and Lackey will remember how to pitch (though I imagine he will, sooner or later). Even if they do - they need more assurance than that. Now - the real problem is that they need to start developing their own arms again - they seem to leave themselves short a few years in a row. They could use Justin Masterson right about now... But that aside - they need to have a lot more in reserve than they had this year.
And finally - losing Tito strikes me as being a very ominous sign. The sox went decades - I mean, decades - without keeping a manager more than 3-4 years at a time - including some very good ones. The job eats them alive, here in Boston, with its rabid sports press and fans and its sometimes - unrealistic management. In the old old days, they tried to do it on the cheap - in this brave new world, they try to spend like the Yankees - but the Yanks have managed to keep a remarkably stable organization over the last 15 years, with obvious results. I don't know. Tito gave them stability in the dugout, on the field - now that he's gone, I suspect they will soon have the managerial revolving doors spinning. They spend a lot of money - they won't have the loyalty and commitment to any new guy they had to him. This is going to become a habit, I fear. I've become a soccer fan in the last couple years and I dread that they will decide to adopt the Chelsea method - pour in the money, run out a new manager every couple years, watch Man U/New York run up 3 championships to every one of yours. Which, to be fair, has plenty of baseball precedent - the Mets, the Dodgers - I suppose it is not surprising that Bobby Valentine and JOe Torre - Mets and Dodger alums - are being touted for this job.
All right - that's enough of that. What about the playoffs, huh? the teams that are in are pretty interesting in themselves....
AL: I say - Tigers are going to beat the Yankees. Yanks are obviously a pretty good team but - Freddy Garcia? Bartolo Colon? Ivan Nova? Course I said the same thing at the beginning of the year and look where that got me... I do think the Tigers are going to win. In Texas? TB has pitching, yes, and a decent team, but Texas is really good - all over the place really good. They are, I think, the real team to beat in the AL - I don't think TB will do it.
NL: Should be the Phils in something like a walk - all that pitching, and some real hitters... the Cards aren't bad, have Pujols plus Berkman and Holliday - I don't know. I don't think they have shut down pitching, and the Phils do, so... The Brewers should beat Arizona, though it wouldn't be impossible for the Snakes to win. Just very unlikely. Then - The Brewers aren't too far off the Phils - offensive punch, very strong rotation, strong bullpen - just that - if the Phillies' pitchers are hot - and they usually are - they won 102 games for a reason.
A lot of neat World Series matchups can be generated by this - Phils over Texas is the most likely I think; Tigers over Brewers would be the most entertaining, I suspect. With the sox out, I find myself without too strong feelings - I rather like quite a few of these teams (Phils, Rangers, Tigers; the Brewers and Rays to some extent) - the Diamondbacks are a fun story. As always, though, I know who to root against - the Damned Yankees and Tony LaRussa. I haven't forgiven him for using 7 pitchers in a meaningless midsummer game I attended in Baltimore in 1994 - the damned idiot had to know the season was only going to run another week! it was 99 degrees of Baltimore heat - and he's running 7 pitchers out there? I will never forgive him.
The thing is, they had nothing else to go to. They didn't have options in place of letting Wakefield try yet again for that 200th win - other than maybe putting Aceves in the rotation, though I don't know what that would have helped as it is, he threw the second most innings on the team (per that ESPN article.) And that ought to be a hint as to what I think about Francona leaving. The team didn't fail because he lost the clubhouse - the team failed because they had 2 major league starters. Now - Lackey has been good, and probably will be again - if Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon can rise from the dead, why not John Lackey? And Wake was, as usual, pretty good through about 120 innings. But past is past, and in the present, neither was worth a damn. Bedard was sort of okay for a while, but he's pitching with the same arm he's been occasionally pitching with all his career, so the results are predictable. Andrew Miller - may be a worthy project, but not one you put in a game when there's anything on the line. And again I say - none of this should have been surprising. And - something should have been done. And if it wasn't done - I kind of wish the team, or Epstein, would say, we ran out of pitching, we didn't have the arms to contend. Because that's the truth - even if they made the playoffs, they would be easy pickings, as things stand now.
So - I suppose it is obvious what I think they have to do in the post-season: they need to get a reliable starting pitcher. They probably should resign Papelbon and Ortiz - they should find a decent right fielder (better if they can, but that may be easier said than done) - but most of all, they need a proper starting pitcher. I do not think they can afford to assume, or hope, that Buchholz will be healthy (though I expect he will be) and Lackey will remember how to pitch (though I imagine he will, sooner or later). Even if they do - they need more assurance than that. Now - the real problem is that they need to start developing their own arms again - they seem to leave themselves short a few years in a row. They could use Justin Masterson right about now... But that aside - they need to have a lot more in reserve than they had this year.
And finally - losing Tito strikes me as being a very ominous sign. The sox went decades - I mean, decades - without keeping a manager more than 3-4 years at a time - including some very good ones. The job eats them alive, here in Boston, with its rabid sports press and fans and its sometimes - unrealistic management. In the old old days, they tried to do it on the cheap - in this brave new world, they try to spend like the Yankees - but the Yanks have managed to keep a remarkably stable organization over the last 15 years, with obvious results. I don't know. Tito gave them stability in the dugout, on the field - now that he's gone, I suspect they will soon have the managerial revolving doors spinning. They spend a lot of money - they won't have the loyalty and commitment to any new guy they had to him. This is going to become a habit, I fear. I've become a soccer fan in the last couple years and I dread that they will decide to adopt the Chelsea method - pour in the money, run out a new manager every couple years, watch Man U/New York run up 3 championships to every one of yours. Which, to be fair, has plenty of baseball precedent - the Mets, the Dodgers - I suppose it is not surprising that Bobby Valentine and JOe Torre - Mets and Dodger alums - are being touted for this job.
All right - that's enough of that. What about the playoffs, huh? the teams that are in are pretty interesting in themselves....
AL: I say - Tigers are going to beat the Yankees. Yanks are obviously a pretty good team but - Freddy Garcia? Bartolo Colon? Ivan Nova? Course I said the same thing at the beginning of the year and look where that got me... I do think the Tigers are going to win. In Texas? TB has pitching, yes, and a decent team, but Texas is really good - all over the place really good. They are, I think, the real team to beat in the AL - I don't think TB will do it.
NL: Should be the Phils in something like a walk - all that pitching, and some real hitters... the Cards aren't bad, have Pujols plus Berkman and Holliday - I don't know. I don't think they have shut down pitching, and the Phils do, so... The Brewers should beat Arizona, though it wouldn't be impossible for the Snakes to win. Just very unlikely. Then - The Brewers aren't too far off the Phils - offensive punch, very strong rotation, strong bullpen - just that - if the Phillies' pitchers are hot - and they usually are - they won 102 games for a reason.
A lot of neat World Series matchups can be generated by this - Phils over Texas is the most likely I think; Tigers over Brewers would be the most entertaining, I suspect. With the sox out, I find myself without too strong feelings - I rather like quite a few of these teams (Phils, Rangers, Tigers; the Brewers and Rays to some extent) - the Diamondbacks are a fun story. As always, though, I know who to root against - the Damned Yankees and Tony LaRussa. I haven't forgiven him for using 7 pitchers in a meaningless midsummer game I attended in Baltimore in 1994 - the damned idiot had to know the season was only going to run another week! it was 99 degrees of Baltimore heat - and he's running 7 pitchers out there? I will never forgive him.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Baseball 2011
We seem to have stalled a bit - so let's branch out a bit... Time for a baseball preview - the surest sign of spring, the start of the baseball season. (Cross posted from the Listening Ear.)
AL East:
1) Boston - There is obviously a lot of hype this year - they had the most active and successful offseason - and they were not far off last year, a game worse than Texas even with all the injuries, the underachievement (Beckett, Papelbon, Lackey), and so on. I think if they had brought back last year's team, they would be favorites - even without Beltre and Martinez, they would be contenders - but getting Crowford and Gonzalez is a lot more than that. It's hard not to pick them - they didn't have anyone really playing over their head last year - if the breakout players (Buchholz and Bard, notably) regress to the mean, you'd think Beckett, Lackey, Papelbon coming back to their mean would more than balance it out.... and I don't think the kids are all that likely to regress - Buchholz and Bard have been top prospects all along - they didn't overachieve last year. The team bolstered all their options - they have depth almost everywhere, including pitching... So - if they stay healthy - they should be formidable. If everything clicks, they might be awe inspiring.
2) NY Yankees - not exactly slouches, though. The team on the field is still pretty good - they also are more likely to get bounceback years from the likes of Jeter and Granderson than any regression from Cano or Gardner. They might be carrying some defensive holes - Jeter has been bad for a long time; A-Rod is getting old and slow as well - but the rest of the field seems pretty well covered. The pitching is another story though - Sabathia is a horse - Hughes, like Buchholz, has been a big prospect for a long time, and one imagines he'll continue to be an asset for a long time.... But then you get AJ Burnett - who seems to me a lesser version of Beckett and Lackey - not as good to start, and less likely to turn it around. And then - Bartolo Colon? Freddy Garcia? Ivan Nova?? I'll take Dice-K, thanks...
3) Tampa Bay - still a strong rotation, still the likes of Langoria and Upton, maybe Zobrist will bounce back - there's Manny and Damon with a lot to prove, but no real expectations - so they are still relevant... They should still have strong starting - they certainly have lots of good options to choose from, behind a very good ace in Price. The pen? Probably keeps them safely in third.
4) Toronto - they have a mob of good and intriguing young pitchers; they have some interesting players on the field - if Lind or Hill come back, if Snider continues to develop, if Bautista doesn't revert to the mean - they could be dangerous. A couple breaks and they could be fighting for third.
5) Baltimore Orioles - they have what - 3 good young players - and a mob of has-beens; and some promising young starters, and Jeremy Guthrie; and - Kevin Gregg? really? They might score some runs - they might not be embarrassing. Showalter might still be on the upward slope of his inevitable rise and fall... but fourth place would be an upset.
Central:
1) Detroit - I think - assuming Cabrera stays out of jail and all. They have some nice pitchers, especially at the top - Verlander and Schzerzer; they have decent players on the field. I think it's a fine line - they have to stay healthy, stay out of jail, stay out of the old folks home - if they do, they should be in contention. Truth is, I don't have a clue who will win this division - the top three teams all have some real stars, but some gaping holes as well - any of them could break in either direction.
2) Chicago - Why put them 2? call it - strong pitching, Dunn, etc. If Peavy were healthy, yeah, maybe... they have Juan Pierre still, though, and that has to be a major point in Detroit and Minnesota's favor.
3) Minnesota - No - actually, I expect them to win the division, as usual. Mauer and Morneau (if he is healthy) are too good - the Cuddyer Span Young Kubel Thome etc. supporting cast is decent - the pitching is decent - Joe Nathan is back, and the pen becomes deeper for it - so... I should put them first.
4) Cleveland - sooner or later something good might happen; though probably the best thing that could happen is they get enough of of Sizemore or Carmona to peddle them off to a contender at the trade deadline.
5) KC - wait til next year! actually - literally - wait til next year - they have some guys on the farm just waiting to shine - hopefully they will be more Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, Billy Butler than Alex Gordon. Who's still around too, isn't he? The organization keeps running out stiffs like Francouer and Melky Cabrera - but maybe, this time next year, all those kids will start to make a difference...
West:
1) Texas - they are somewhat weaker, without Lee, but the division is not strong - they should be safe favorites. They did more to improve their offense than pitching (adding Beltre), but they actually have some nice young pitchers - they should be all right.
2) Anaheim - an offseason which saw them fail to get any of the players who could impact the team, then trade for the worst contract in the game - but they have enough that they could be back in the mix. They should have a pretty good rotation (potentially a very good one, with Haren and Weaver in front of the likes of Santana) - they have enough hitters that they should survive... They are soft, though - getting old in kay positions - they are rteading water at best.
3) Oakland - If they had a little more offense I would be more optimistic - they have some great pitchers. The danger is getting too excited about a good young rotation that isn't backed up by much of a team on the field. Sometimes it works (last year's Giants) - usually, it regresses (last year's Mariners.)
4) Seattle - quite hopeless, until some kids develop. The encouraging thing is that the best player on the team is barely more than a kid himself - King Felix has been around forever, has become the class of the American league - and he's not 25 yet.
National League:
East:
1) Phillies - another superteam, it seems. That is a heck of a rotation, I won't deny it. And a good team, as well - though Utley's absence is bad - and they aren't getting younger. This is the baseball equivalent of the Celtics of the last couple years, I think.
2) Atlanta - they were pretty good last yearm and I suspect they will be better this year - as Heyward and Hanson develop, adding Uggla to hit home runs - they should be solid, a wild card contender.
3) Florida - there's quite a bit of talent here - starting with Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson - with nice younger players, some interesting veterans - will Javier Vazquez do his usual NL thing? will Nolasco come back? they never seem to catch all the breaks - but they seem a little stronger coming in than usual - maybe they will move up...
4) NY Mets - this is with Bay & Beltran & Reyes all year. Without them, they go to fifth.
5) Washington - there's actually quite a bit to like here - I think Werth's contract was ridiculous, but he is a good player to have on a team like this - he and Zimmerman are a nice middle of the lineup. They have quite a number of good young pitchers, too - though they also have Livan Hernandez (and may for the next decade, for all I know.) I think if the Mets run into their usual health and sanity issues, the Nats could get 4th...
Central:
1) Cincy - they have a lot of players who seem to be on the rising slope of their careers - Bruce and Stubbs and quite a few pitchers - I'd worry a bit about some of their pitchers maintaining their success - but not too much. They look like a pretty good team, on balance.
2) Cards - without Wainwright, they are nothing special. They aren't bad - though the pitchers may find Lance Berkman's stylings in right field something less than optimal. They will never be out of it - but...
3) Milwaukee - Greinke's out already? there's a degree of hype about them, too - and certainly if things were to work out, they could be a breakout team - Greinke and Marcum at the front of the rotation could be very very good - or - could put in a lot of time on the training table... I think they're more uncertain than the teams I have ahead of them - not necessarily worse, though.
4) Cubs - I have no idea what the Cubs will do. I rather like the chances of Garza and Zambrano mounting nice comebacks - I suspect Pena will get back over the MEndoza line and whack 35 or so bombs - but how it all fits? So stick 'em here...
5) Houston - in fact, I don't know if I believe this. They are a boring pointless team, actually. Even if they stay ahead of the Bucs, who cares?
6) Pittsburgh - that is to say - though the odds of getting out of the cellar aren't great - they are actually sort of an interesting team. McCutcheon is an exciting player - Tabata, Alvarez, even Jones are intriguing. if they find any pitching at all - htey might start moving. If they somehow get some pitching before McCutcheon hits arbitration, they might even approach .500 in a couple years.
West:
1) SF Giants - that is one hell of a pitching staff. As for the offense - they have a hell of a pitching staff. Though any kind of recovery from Sandoval, a full year of Posey - they should be okay.
2) LA Dodgers - they have a pretty good staff as well. Kemp and Ethier are first rate hitters, too. The rest fo the team does not thrill me.
3) Rockies - they tend to walk a tightrope - they too have a pretty nice staff (strange thing to say about the Rocks) - and some great players (Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, particularly.) And are thin behind them...
4) Diamondbacks - they are actually not half bad themselves. Need to get Young and Upton both playing well at the same time - and the young pitchers (Hudson, Kennedy) need to come through. They oculd be quite respectable...
5) Padres - another team with a fine staff and not much offense. Older mediocrities and promising youngsters who have not yet done anything... I imagine as the organization reloads, people like Heath Bell should probably keep a bag packed...
OKAY! Predictions!
AL: Boston - Detroit - Texas & Yankees for the wildcard. Boston comes out, I think.
NL: Phils - Reds - Gints & Atlanta - Phils should win it, but this is harder to predict - Giants will be hard to beat with those arms.
Leaving the Sox winners, though - I hope.
AL MVP = I'm gonna say Carl Crawford - watch him use that center field tringle as a triple machine! watch him steal 40, drive in 100, his .325!
Cy Young: make it a Red Sox sweep - Lester!
Rookie - oy - Hellickson seems like the safest bet.
NL MVP = default of course is Pujols. If not Pujols - Tulowitzki or why not Matt Kemp? AT least until the Marlins make the playoffs, which will give it to Hanley.
Cy Young = Halladay and Lincecum are the default choices there - my money would be on Lincecum.
Rookie = do I know? Belt in SF? could be.
Anyway - off we go! games tomorrow! all is well!
AL East:
1) Boston - There is obviously a lot of hype this year - they had the most active and successful offseason - and they were not far off last year, a game worse than Texas even with all the injuries, the underachievement (Beckett, Papelbon, Lackey), and so on. I think if they had brought back last year's team, they would be favorites - even without Beltre and Martinez, they would be contenders - but getting Crowford and Gonzalez is a lot more than that. It's hard not to pick them - they didn't have anyone really playing over their head last year - if the breakout players (Buchholz and Bard, notably) regress to the mean, you'd think Beckett, Lackey, Papelbon coming back to their mean would more than balance it out.... and I don't think the kids are all that likely to regress - Buchholz and Bard have been top prospects all along - they didn't overachieve last year. The team bolstered all their options - they have depth almost everywhere, including pitching... So - if they stay healthy - they should be formidable. If everything clicks, they might be awe inspiring.
2) NY Yankees - not exactly slouches, though. The team on the field is still pretty good - they also are more likely to get bounceback years from the likes of Jeter and Granderson than any regression from Cano or Gardner. They might be carrying some defensive holes - Jeter has been bad for a long time; A-Rod is getting old and slow as well - but the rest of the field seems pretty well covered. The pitching is another story though - Sabathia is a horse - Hughes, like Buchholz, has been a big prospect for a long time, and one imagines he'll continue to be an asset for a long time.... But then you get AJ Burnett - who seems to me a lesser version of Beckett and Lackey - not as good to start, and less likely to turn it around. And then - Bartolo Colon? Freddy Garcia? Ivan Nova?? I'll take Dice-K, thanks...
3) Tampa Bay - still a strong rotation, still the likes of Langoria and Upton, maybe Zobrist will bounce back - there's Manny and Damon with a lot to prove, but no real expectations - so they are still relevant... They should still have strong starting - they certainly have lots of good options to choose from, behind a very good ace in Price. The pen? Probably keeps them safely in third.
4) Toronto - they have a mob of good and intriguing young pitchers; they have some interesting players on the field - if Lind or Hill come back, if Snider continues to develop, if Bautista doesn't revert to the mean - they could be dangerous. A couple breaks and they could be fighting for third.
5) Baltimore Orioles - they have what - 3 good young players - and a mob of has-beens; and some promising young starters, and Jeremy Guthrie; and - Kevin Gregg? really? They might score some runs - they might not be embarrassing. Showalter might still be on the upward slope of his inevitable rise and fall... but fourth place would be an upset.
Central:
1) Detroit - I think - assuming Cabrera stays out of jail and all. They have some nice pitchers, especially at the top - Verlander and Schzerzer; they have decent players on the field. I think it's a fine line - they have to stay healthy, stay out of jail, stay out of the old folks home - if they do, they should be in contention. Truth is, I don't have a clue who will win this division - the top three teams all have some real stars, but some gaping holes as well - any of them could break in either direction.
2) Chicago - Why put them 2? call it - strong pitching, Dunn, etc. If Peavy were healthy, yeah, maybe... they have Juan Pierre still, though, and that has to be a major point in Detroit and Minnesota's favor.
3) Minnesota - No - actually, I expect them to win the division, as usual. Mauer and Morneau (if he is healthy) are too good - the Cuddyer Span Young Kubel Thome etc. supporting cast is decent - the pitching is decent - Joe Nathan is back, and the pen becomes deeper for it - so... I should put them first.
4) Cleveland - sooner or later something good might happen; though probably the best thing that could happen is they get enough of of Sizemore or Carmona to peddle them off to a contender at the trade deadline.
5) KC - wait til next year! actually - literally - wait til next year - they have some guys on the farm just waiting to shine - hopefully they will be more Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, Billy Butler than Alex Gordon. Who's still around too, isn't he? The organization keeps running out stiffs like Francouer and Melky Cabrera - but maybe, this time next year, all those kids will start to make a difference...
West:
1) Texas - they are somewhat weaker, without Lee, but the division is not strong - they should be safe favorites. They did more to improve their offense than pitching (adding Beltre), but they actually have some nice young pitchers - they should be all right.
2) Anaheim - an offseason which saw them fail to get any of the players who could impact the team, then trade for the worst contract in the game - but they have enough that they could be back in the mix. They should have a pretty good rotation (potentially a very good one, with Haren and Weaver in front of the likes of Santana) - they have enough hitters that they should survive... They are soft, though - getting old in kay positions - they are rteading water at best.
3) Oakland - If they had a little more offense I would be more optimistic - they have some great pitchers. The danger is getting too excited about a good young rotation that isn't backed up by much of a team on the field. Sometimes it works (last year's Giants) - usually, it regresses (last year's Mariners.)
4) Seattle - quite hopeless, until some kids develop. The encouraging thing is that the best player on the team is barely more than a kid himself - King Felix has been around forever, has become the class of the American league - and he's not 25 yet.
National League:
East:
1) Phillies - another superteam, it seems. That is a heck of a rotation, I won't deny it. And a good team, as well - though Utley's absence is bad - and they aren't getting younger. This is the baseball equivalent of the Celtics of the last couple years, I think.
2) Atlanta - they were pretty good last yearm and I suspect they will be better this year - as Heyward and Hanson develop, adding Uggla to hit home runs - they should be solid, a wild card contender.
3) Florida - there's quite a bit of talent here - starting with Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson - with nice younger players, some interesting veterans - will Javier Vazquez do his usual NL thing? will Nolasco come back? they never seem to catch all the breaks - but they seem a little stronger coming in than usual - maybe they will move up...
4) NY Mets - this is with Bay & Beltran & Reyes all year. Without them, they go to fifth.
5) Washington - there's actually quite a bit to like here - I think Werth's contract was ridiculous, but he is a good player to have on a team like this - he and Zimmerman are a nice middle of the lineup. They have quite a number of good young pitchers, too - though they also have Livan Hernandez (and may for the next decade, for all I know.) I think if the Mets run into their usual health and sanity issues, the Nats could get 4th...
Central:
1) Cincy - they have a lot of players who seem to be on the rising slope of their careers - Bruce and Stubbs and quite a few pitchers - I'd worry a bit about some of their pitchers maintaining their success - but not too much. They look like a pretty good team, on balance.
2) Cards - without Wainwright, they are nothing special. They aren't bad - though the pitchers may find Lance Berkman's stylings in right field something less than optimal. They will never be out of it - but...
3) Milwaukee - Greinke's out already? there's a degree of hype about them, too - and certainly if things were to work out, they could be a breakout team - Greinke and Marcum at the front of the rotation could be very very good - or - could put in a lot of time on the training table... I think they're more uncertain than the teams I have ahead of them - not necessarily worse, though.
4) Cubs - I have no idea what the Cubs will do. I rather like the chances of Garza and Zambrano mounting nice comebacks - I suspect Pena will get back over the MEndoza line and whack 35 or so bombs - but how it all fits? So stick 'em here...
5) Houston - in fact, I don't know if I believe this. They are a boring pointless team, actually. Even if they stay ahead of the Bucs, who cares?
6) Pittsburgh - that is to say - though the odds of getting out of the cellar aren't great - they are actually sort of an interesting team. McCutcheon is an exciting player - Tabata, Alvarez, even Jones are intriguing. if they find any pitching at all - htey might start moving. If they somehow get some pitching before McCutcheon hits arbitration, they might even approach .500 in a couple years.
West:
1) SF Giants - that is one hell of a pitching staff. As for the offense - they have a hell of a pitching staff. Though any kind of recovery from Sandoval, a full year of Posey - they should be okay.
2) LA Dodgers - they have a pretty good staff as well. Kemp and Ethier are first rate hitters, too. The rest fo the team does not thrill me.
3) Rockies - they tend to walk a tightrope - they too have a pretty nice staff (strange thing to say about the Rocks) - and some great players (Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, particularly.) And are thin behind them...
4) Diamondbacks - they are actually not half bad themselves. Need to get Young and Upton both playing well at the same time - and the young pitchers (Hudson, Kennedy) need to come through. They oculd be quite respectable...
5) Padres - another team with a fine staff and not much offense. Older mediocrities and promising youngsters who have not yet done anything... I imagine as the organization reloads, people like Heath Bell should probably keep a bag packed...
OKAY! Predictions!
AL: Boston - Detroit - Texas & Yankees for the wildcard. Boston comes out, I think.
NL: Phils - Reds - Gints & Atlanta - Phils should win it, but this is harder to predict - Giants will be hard to beat with those arms.
Leaving the Sox winners, though - I hope.
AL MVP = I'm gonna say Carl Crawford - watch him use that center field tringle as a triple machine! watch him steal 40, drive in 100, his .325!
Cy Young: make it a Red Sox sweep - Lester!
Rookie - oy - Hellickson seems like the safest bet.
NL MVP = default of course is Pujols. If not Pujols - Tulowitzki or why not Matt Kemp? AT least until the Marlins make the playoffs, which will give it to Hanley.
Cy Young = Halladay and Lincecum are the default choices there - my money would be on Lincecum.
Rookie = do I know? Belt in SF? could be.
Anyway - off we go! games tomorrow! all is well!
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